As rising oceans threaten NYC, study documents another risk: The city is sinking
NEW YORK (AP) — If rising oceans aren’t worry enough, add this to the risks New York City faces: The metropolis is slowly sinking under the weight of its skyscrapers, homes, asphalt and humanity itself.
New research estimates the city’s landmass is sinking at an average rate of 1 to 2 millimeters per year, something referred to as “subsidence.”
That natural process happens everywhere as ground is compressed, but the study published this month in the journal Earth’s Future sought to estimate how the massive weight of the city itself is hurrying things along.
More than 1 million buildings are spread across the city’s five boroughs. The research team calculated that all those structures add up to about 1.7 trillion tons (1.5 trillion metric tons) of concrete, metal and glass — about the mass of 4,700 Empire State buildings — pressing down on the Earth.
The rate of compression varies throughout the city. Midtown Manhattan’s skyscrapers are largely built on rock, which compresses very little, while some parts of Brooklyn, Queens and downtown Manhattan are on looser soil and sinking faster, the study revealed.
While the process is slow, lead researcher Tom Parsons of the U.S. Geological Survey said parts of the city will eventually be under water.
“It’s inevitable. The ground is going down, and the water’s coming up. At some point, those two levels will meet,” said Parsons, whose job is to forecast hazardous events from earthquakes and tsunamis to incremental shifts of the ground below us.
But no need to invest in life preservers just yet, Parsons assured.
The study merely notes buildings themselves are contributing, albeit incrementally, to the shifting landscape, he said. Parsons and his team of researchers reached their conclusions using satellite imaging, data modeling and a lot of mathematical assumptions.
It will take hundreds of years — precisely when is unclear — before New York becomes America’s version of Venice, which is famously sinking into the Adriatic Sea.
But parts of the city are more at risk.
“There’s a lot of weight there, a lot of people there,” Parsons said, referring specifically to Manhattan. “The average elevation in the southern part of the island is only 1 or 2 meters (3.2 or 6.5 feet) above sea level — it is very close to the waterline, and so it is a deep concern.”
Because the ocean is rising at a similar rate as the land is sinking, the Earth’s changing climate could accelerate the timeline for parts of the city to disappear under water.
“It doesn’t mean that we should stop building buildings. It doesn’t mean that the buildings are themselves the sole cause of this. There are a lot of factors,” Parsons said. “The purpose was to point this out in advance before it becomes a bigger problem.”
Already, New York City is at risk of flooding because of massive storms that can cause the ocean to swell inland or inundate neighborhoods with torrential rain.
The resulting flooding could have destructive and deadly consequences, as demonstrated by Superstorm Sandy a decade ago and the still-potent remnants of Hurricane Ida two years ago.
“From a scientific perspective, this is an important study,” said Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a senior researcher at Columbia University’s Climate School, who was not involved in the research.
Its findings could help inform policy makers as they draft ongoing plans to combat, or at least forestall, the rising tides.
“We can’t sit around and wait for a critical threshold of sea level rise to occur,” he said, “because waiting could mean we would be missing out on taking anticipatory action and preparedness measures.”
New Yorkers such as Tracy Miles can be incredulous at first.
“I think it’s a made-up story,” Miles said. He thought again while looking at sailboats bobbing in the water edging downtown Manhattan. “We do have an excessive amount of skyscrapers, apartment buildings, corporate offices and retail spaces.”
New York City isn’t the only place sinking. San Francisco also is putting considerable pressure on the ground and the region’s active earthquake faults. In Indonesia, the government is preparing for a possible retreat from Jakarta, which is sinking into the Java Sea, for a new capital being constructed on the higher ground of an entirely different island.
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‘The Little Mermaid’ makes box office splash with $95.5 million opening
LOS ANGELES (AP) — “ The Little Mermaid ” made moviegoers want to be under the sea on Memorial Day weekend.
Disney’s live-action remake of its 1989 animated classic easily outswam the competition, bringing in $95.5 million on 4,320 screens in North America, according to studio estimates Sunday.
And Disney estimates the film starring Halle Bailey as the titular mermaid Ariel and Melissa McCarthy as her sea witch nemesis Ursula will reach $117.5 million by the time the holiday is over. It ranks as the fifth biggest Memorial Day weekend opening ever.
It displaces “Fast X” in the top spot. The 10th installment in the “Fast and Furious” franchise starring Vin Diesel has lagged behind more recent releases in the series, bringing in $23 million domestically for a two-week total of $108 million for Universal Pictures.
In its fourth weekend, Disney and Marvel’s “ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ” made an estimated $20 million in North America to take third place. It’s now made $299 million domestically.
The performance of “The Little Mermaid” represents something of a bounce-back for Disney’s animated-to-live-action remakes, and makes it likely they will keep coming indefinitely. Poor reception and the pandemic had some recent reboots either performing poorly or skipping theatrical releases for Disney +, including “Dumbo,” “Mulan” and “Pinocchio.”
“It works as long as the movies deliver,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Comscore. “It’s great for Disney to be able to go to their archive by reviving these titles that started off as huge hits in the animated realm.”
The opening puts it in the top tier of Disney’s remakes, with a similar performance to 2019’s “Aladdin,” though it was well short of 2017’s “Beauty and the Beast,” which opened to more than $170 million, and 2019’s “The Lion King,” which brought in more than $190 million in its first weekend.
Audiences thought it delivered. The film had an A CinemaScore, and according to exit polling had more ticket buyers between ages 25 and 34 than children, suggesting nostalgic adults were essential.
“The multi generational component of this cannot be overstated,” Dergarabedian said.
Critics were more lukewarm. The movie is currently at 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. In her review, Lindsey Bahr of The Associated Press called it “a somewhat drab undertaking with sparks of bioluminescence” that like too many of the Disney remakes “prioritized nostalgia and familiarity over compelling visual storytelling.”
She said Bailey, half of the sister R&B duo Chloe x Halle, still shone with a “lovely presence” and “superb voice.”
Directed by Rob Marshall with a reported budget of $250 million before marketing, “The Little Mermaid” tells the story of a yearning, wayward daughter who cuts a devil’s deal to swap her fins for a pair of legs. It features the songs from Alan Menken and Howard Ashman, including “Part of Your World” and “Under the Sea,” that helped the original film spark a Disney animation renaissance in the 1990s.
Fourth place went to Universal’s “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” which keeps reaching new levels in its eighth weekend. Now available to rent on VOD, it still earned $6.3 million in theatres. Its cumulative total of $559 million makes Mario and Luigi the year’s biggest earners so far.
Comics couldn’t stand up to Ariel as the week’s other new releases sank.
“The Machine,” an action comedy starring stand—up comedian Bert Kreischer, finished fifth with $4.9 million domestically. And ” About My Father,” the broad comedy starring stand-up Sebastian Maniscalco and Robert De Niro, was sixth with $4.3 million.
It’s not clear whether “The Little Mermaid” will have legs — or fins — going forward. Next week brings the release of animated “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” with “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” arriving the following week.
Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore. Final domestic figures will be released Monday.
1. “The Little Mermaid,” $95.5 million.
2. “Fast X,” $23 million.
3. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” $20 million.
4. “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” $6.3 million.
5. “The Machine,” $4.9 million.
6. “About My Father,” $4.3 million.
7. “Kandahar,” $2.4 million.
8. “You Hurt My Feelings,” 1.4 million.
9. “Evil Dead Rise,” $1 million.
10. “Book Club, The Next Chapter,” $920, 000.
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Follow AP Entertainment Writer Andrew Dalton: https://twitter.com/andyjamesdalton
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Biden and McCarthy reach a final deal to avoid US default and now must sell it to Congress
WASHINGTON (AP) — With days to spare before a potential first-ever government default, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached final agreement Sunday on a deal to raise the nation’s debt ceiling and worked to ensure enough support in Congress to pass the measure in the coming week.
The Democratic president and Republican speaker spoke late in the day as negotiators rushed to draft and post the bill text for review, with compromises that neither the hard-right or left flank is likely to support. Instead, the leaders are working to gather backing from the political middle as Congress hurries toward votes before a June 5 deadline to avert a damaging federal default.
“Good news,” Biden declared Sunday evening at the White House.
“The agreement prevents the worst possible crisis, a default, for the first time in our nation’s history,” he said. “Takes the threat of a catastrophic default off the table.”
The president urged both parties in Congress to come together for swift passage. “The speaker and I made clear from the start that the only way forward was a bipartisan agreement,” he said.
The final product includes spending cuts but risks angering some lawmakers as they take a closer look at the concessions. Biden told reporters at the White House upon his return from Delaware that he was confident the plan will make it to his desk.
McCarthy, too, was confident in remarks at the Capitol: “At the end of the day, people can look together to be able to pass this.”
The days ahead will determine whether Washington is again able to narrowly avoid a default on U.S. debt, as it has done many times before, or whether the global economy enters a potential crisis.
In the United States, a default could cause financial markets to freeze up and spark an international financial crisis. Analysts say millions of jobs would vanish, borrowing and unemployment rates would jump, and a stock-market plunge could erase trillions of dollars in household wealth. It would all but shatter the $24 trillion market for Treasury debt.
Anxious retirees and others were already making contingency plans for missed checks, with the next Social Security payments due soon as the world watches American leadership at stake.
McCarthy and his negotiators portrayed the deal as delivering for Republicans though it fell well short of the sweeping spending cuts they sought. Top White House officials were briefing Democratic lawmakers and phoning some directly to try to shore up support.
One surprise was a provision important to influential Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., giving congressional backing for the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline, a natural gas project, that is certain to raise questions.
Negotiators also agreed to some Republican demands for increased work requirements for food stamps recipients that Democrats had called a nonstarter.
McCarthy told reporters at the Capitol on Sunday that the agreement “doesn’t get everything everybody wanted,” but that was to be expected in a divided government. Privately, he told lawmakers on a conference call that Democrats “got nothing.”
Weeks of negotiations came together when Biden and McCarthy spoke by phone Saturday evening and agreed in principle to the deal, finishing it up Sunday with the 99-page legislative text made public.
Support from both parties will be needed to win congressional approval before the projected June 5 government default on U.S. debts. Lawmakers are expected to return Tuesday from the Memorial Day weekend, and McCarthy has promised lawmakers he will abide by the rule to post any bill for 72 hours before voting in the House, as soon as Wednesday.
The package would next go to the Senate, where Republican leader Mitch McConnell said senators “must act swiftly and pass this agreement without unnecessary delay.”
Central to the compromise is a two-year budget deal that would essentially hold spending flat for 2024, while boosting it for defense and veterans, and capping increases at 1% for 2025. That’s alongside raising the debt limit for two years, pushing the volatile political issue past the next presidential election.
Driving hard to impose tougher work requirements on government aid recipients, Republicans achieved some of what they wanted. It ensures people ages 49 to 54 with food stamp aid would have to meet work requirements if they are able-bodied and without dependents. Biden was able to secure waivers for veterans and homeless people.
The deal puts in place changes in the landmark National Environmental Policy Act designating “a single lead agency” to develop environmental reviews, in hopes of streamlining the process.
It halts some funds to hire new Internal Revenue Service agents as Republicans demanded, and rescinds some $30 billion for coronavirus relief, keeping $5 billion for developing the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines.
The deal would suspend the debt limit until January 2025. It came together after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress that the United States could default on its debt obligations by June 5 — four days later than previously estimated. Lifting the nation’s debt limit, now at $31 trillion, allows more borrowing to pay bills already incurred.
McCarthy commands only a slim Republican majority in the House, where hard-right conservatives may resist any deal as insufficient as they try to slash spending. By compromising with Democrats, he risks angering his own members, setting up a career-challenging moment for the new speaker.
“I think you’re going to get a majority of Republicans voting for this bill,” McCarthy said on “Fox News Sunday,” adding that because Biden backed it, “I think there’s going to be a lot of Democrats that will vote for it, too.”
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that he expected there will be Democratic support but he declined to provide a number. Asked whether he could guarantee there would not be a default, he said, “Yes.”
A 100-strong group of moderates in the New Democratic Coalition gave a crucial nod of support Sunday, saying in a statement it was confident that Biden and his team “delivered a viable, bipartisan solution to end this crisis.”
The coalition could provide enough support for McCarthy to make up for members in the right flank of his party who have expressed opposition before the bill’s wording was even released.
It also takes pressure off Biden, facing criticism from progressives for giving into what they call hostage-taking by Republicans.
Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington state, who leads the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told CBS that the White House and Jeffries should worry about whether caucus members will support the agreement.
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Price reported from New York. Associated Press writers Seung Min Kim and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.
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