Expect An Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Says Forecasters
As NYC prepares for a summer of suffocating heat and poor air quality, another thing thats on official’s minds is hurricane season. And according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center, we should expect an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season. There’s only a 10% chance the season will be near-normal, and a mere 5% chance the season will be below-normal.
A total of 7 to 25 named storms, or storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, are predicted for this season. Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes–having winds of 74 mph or higher–and 4 to 7 of those are forecast to become major hurricanes–category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.
The reason this hurricane season is expected to be above-normal is due to a number of factors, including “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.”
Moreover, human-caused climate change is not only warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin but its also melting ice on land. This leads to sea level rise which then increases the risk of storm surge (and this is what NYC could look like if sea levels rose drastically).
And unfortunately forecasters are pretty set on these numbers–they have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks stated:
Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today. Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail.
Part of those preparations by the NOAA involve implementing improvements to its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts. This includes:
- Expanding the National Hurricane Center’s offering of Spanish language text products
- Issuing an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S.
- Issuing U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories
As for NYC specifically, an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season means flash flooding concerns. As a response to this the city is preparing to ensure notifications and alerts are sent out in a timely fashion.
Moreover, NYC’s “Know Your Zone” campaign encourages New Yorkers to know their zone and be prepared to evacuate during a hurricane if needed. You can learn more about this by visiting this website or calling 311.
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